I’m not a big fan of predictions and soothsaying, but I still read those that are well thought.

Tony Byrne has developed his Predictions for 2007 which include:

• Google de-googles its appliance
• AJAX UI backlash
• Web managers embracing the delete key
• Falling seat prices
• Rediscovery of workflow
• Portal platforms will diversify

I agree with most of Tony’s predictions, but I think there are bigger ones at play. I know I said I don’t do these predictions but since my company is called ‘Prescient’ I feel compelled to become a hypocrite.

The year 2007 will see:

• Microsoft crank-up the marketing of Sharepoint leading to more and more customers buying without seriously examining alternative solutions
• Standalone portal products will continue to be considerably out-done by CMS solutions
• More vendors delivering a complete all-in-one solution that includes robust content management, search and portal functionality
• Continued market consolidation with many more CMS vendors being bought, merged or disappearing
• Dramatic growth in open source implementation and increased profile and functionality for bigger name solutions such as Zope, Alfresco, OpenCMS, and Plone
• More and more organizations will convert PDF and MS-Word forms to online submission forms with a mixture of in-house and outsourced solutions
• The search engine market will experience less growth than previous years as more organizations realize their current engine suffices and instead focus on content tagging, categorizing, process and policies
• Discussion and focus on Knowledge Management (KM) will continue to decline as more organizations instead narrow their attention to specific tools such as Web 2.0 applications
• More organizations will implement blogs and wikis, but they will still be part of a minority group; social bookmarking and podcasting will still remain little more than a fad on the intranet

Agree? Disagree? What other predictions will come true? Post your comment or question below.

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I receive many, many questions about different content management systems and portal products and asked for my opinions on one product or vendor versus another. My response, in short, is: who cares!!

Okay usually I’m a little more polite than that, and I try not to foam at the mouth or have a hissy fit (hey, I’m only a product of my environment and I have two young daughters). My long response is a little more intelligent: it doesn’t matter what a product has or can do, what is more important is what it can do for you. More specifically, how does it meet your organization’s specific user, business and functional requirements?

Sharepoint promotional slide (Microsoft.com) with the requisite

stock photo to make me want to buy... she's cute but...

The number one vendor I’m questioned about is Microsoft, particularly Sharepoint. I know some friends and colleagues at Microsoft will give me a tough time on this, but I am completely technology neutral. Neither my company Prescient nor I have any technology partnerships or reseller (VAR) agreements with any vendor. That makes me and Prescient a very rare breed. The vast majority of even the small web design shops have partnerships with one or several vendors like Microsoft; making those firms bias. I am not and have no axe to grind with MS. In fact, I like Microsoft, I admire the Sharepoint team, and I like Microsoft’s own corporate portal (MSWeb).

However… I am not yet intimately familiar with the latest version of Sharepoint. But I am not a fan of the previous version, and I do not like the Microsoft CMS. The previous version of Sharepoint and CMS were very simplistic and limited; fine for very simple document management, but in my opinion, not very good for an enterprise intranet. Sharepoint is a fine product for some organizations, but wouldn’t be a good fit for many others.

Here’s the crux of my point: what works for one organization is sure not to work for yours. Everyone organization is unique with unique needs. This is not just true for Microsoft, but for ALL vendors and products. We’re working with a client that uses Plumtree. And frankly, this implementation, like most of the Plumtree implementations that I’ve seen, is brutal. However, I’ve also seen a very good Plumtree implementation for GlaxoSmithKline (I’ll be doing a case study article in the coming weeks).

But forget about what I have to say about Sharepoint, or what IT says, or any other company (including Microsoft). Best spend your time determining what you need to do, and then match those needs to the available solutions.

If you’re planning a new intranet – or extranet or website – take a few weeks to really thoroughly document your user, business and functional requirements for a CMS or intranet platform and then match them to several different vendor offerings. There are thousands of potential solutions to power your intranet. Take the time to thoroughly understand and document your needs and a few of these vendors.

The best way to find the best solution for your organization’s needs is through a *detailed* RFP. Get the vendors working for your business… don’t just look at the product offerings of a couple and make a decision. It might be that Sharepoint or Plumtree works for you in the end, but why not make certain. It’s just too expensive and complex a decision not to spend a few weeks gathering requirements and evaluating a few vendors accordingly.

NOTE TO VENDORS: Please don’t spam me with your sales pitches on why Sharepoint or your solution is the cat’s meow. This is not a critique of Sharepoint, Plumtree or any other solution. It’s a recommendation for following a *process* to choose Sharepoint, Plumtree or another solution. I’m not above being bribed thoug; but I’ll still remain technology neutral  Good case studies are always welcome though and frequently featured here.

About the author: Toby Ward is an intranet consultant (Internet consultant too) and the founder of Prescient Digital Media. He has worked with and improved many, many company intranets including Amgen, HSBC, Mastercard, Manulife, PepsiCo, Royal Bank, etc. Toby and his company are consultants for hire and can help improve your intranet… if given the right amount of time and motivation J Toby is also available to watch or play just about any sport – including the culinary sports J You may contact this intranet consultant directly.

What is the difference between a good intranet and a great intranet? What do you do to get to great?

There is no simple answer. In fact, using the Prescient Digital Media intranet methodology of rating and scoring an intranet out of 10, I estimate that to advance a 6 out of 10 intranet to an 8 out of 10 requires twice the effort and much more intelligent thinking.

In preparing a magazine article on great intranets I developed a success factor comparison matrix on good and great intranets based on real experience with both good and great intranets with an average of 5,000 employees. The following is a summary of the complete table to be published in a couple of months:

For the complete table or more information on evolving your intranet from good to great then please contact me directly: toby{at}prescientdigital{dot com}.

My colleague Seth Gottlieb from Optaros knows open source very well. In fact, he’s probably the most knowledgeable guy on the planet when it comes to open source content management systems (CMSs) I say this of course with no hesitation despite the fact that he is a die-hard Red Sox fan, and therefore by definition, a sworn enemy of a lifelong Blue Jays fan (we won’t hold it against him though since he probably doesn’t know any better J).

Coming to know open source as well as he does, Seth is well versed in all the mythology and hearsay about open source. Let’s face it, most of us know little about open source (or at least until recently) and yet most have some very definitive, pre-conceived notions about open source. But thanks to Seth and some of his colleagues I know a lot more about open source now then I did at New Year’s last year.

Here’s perhaps the most valuable education you can get on open source solutions, and more bang-for-the-buck then any book or course: Seth Gottlieb’s top 8 myths about open source – myths for both the critics (anti) and supporters (pro). I’ve paraphrased some and added my own opinion in places and analysis, but this is almost all Seth’s work.

Anti-open source myth #1: Open source will cost more than commercial.

Read the full article Open source myths